The U.S. economy is showing signs of strain, with 22 states either currently in recession or at high risk of entering one. While the national picture isn’t yet a full-blown downturn, significant regional weaknesses suggest broader economic trouble ahead.
State-Level Economic Pressure
According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, these states account for nearly a third of the nation’s GDP, meaning their economic struggles will have a substantial impact. The situation isn’t limited to one region; contraction and slowdowns are scattered across the country, indicating interconnected hazards.
“State-level data makes it clear why the U.S. economy is on the edge of recession… another third are just holding steady.” – Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics
Regional Trends
Some areas, like the Washington D.C. metro area, are facing recession due to government job cuts. Southern states remain relatively strong, but even their growth is decelerating. Notably, California and New York, which collectively represent over 20% of U.S. GDP, are showing stability; their continued performance is crucial to avoiding a national recession.
States at Risk: Ranked by Economic Strength
Here are the 22 states facing recession or high risk, ranked from strongest to weakest economy:
- Wyoming
- Montana
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Kansas
- Massachusetts
- Washington
- Georgia
- New Hampshire
- Maryland
- Rhode Island
- Illinois
- Delaware
- Virginia
- Oregon
- Connecticut
- South Dakota
- New Jersey
- Maine
- Iowa
- West Virginia
- District of Columbia
What This Means
The widespread nature of this recession risk highlights systemic weaknesses in the U.S. economy. Regional downturns can quickly spread, impacting national growth and potentially triggering a broader recession. Monitoring these states closely is essential, as their economic performance will heavily influence the overall economic outlook.
