Steve Kornacki, a familiar face on Election Day coverage and a beloved figure across the political spectrum, recently sat down to analyze Tuesday’s results. Beyond the enthusiastic reaction to his presence at the “big board,” Kornacki’s granular knowledge of voting trends and county-level data offers valuable insights into the evolving political landscape. His observations, gleaned from hours of reviewing returns, illuminate shifts in voter behavior and the potential implications for the 2026 midterm elections.
Kornacki’s Key Takeaways
Kornacki discussed several key observations from the recent election results. Here’s a breakdown of what stood out:
New Jersey Surprise
The most immediate surprise for Kornacki was the outcome of the New Jersey governor’s race. Representative Mikie Sherrill won by a margin of over 56 percent, a significantly larger victory than anticipated. Democrats leading up to Election Day had expressed concerns about Sherrill’s campaign, suggesting it was poorly run and potentially vulnerable. Kornacki noted that this perspective was shared across both political parties.
New York City Dynamics
In the New York City mayoral race, Kornacki highlighted the strong support for Zohran Mamdani, pointing to patterns that mirrored the primary election. Borough Park, a district with a majority Jewish population, demonstrated considerable support for Mamdani, mirroring the results of the primary. Conversely, Park Slope, an area characterized by a younger median age, a high proportion of college degrees, and a concentration of creative professionals, delivered a similar level of support, suggesting that patterns established in the primary repeated themselves in the general election.
Shifting Suburban Landscape
Kornacki emphasized the shifting dynamics in suburban areas, specifically referencing Somerset County, New Jersey—home to both Jack Ciattarelli (the Republican candidate) and Donald Trump’s golf club. Ciattarelli performed exceptionally well in this county in 2020, but this year, Sherrill earned a commanding victory, outperforming Ciattarelli by nearly 20 points. This reflects a broader trend of college-educated, white-collar voters increasingly rejecting Donald Trump and supporting Democratic candidates.
Trump’s Base and Independent Voters
The question of whether Republican success stemmed from broader appeal or simply reflected allegiance to Donald Trump loomed large. Kornacki suggests that the results in New Jersey don’t demonstrate a broader Republican phenomenon. Rather, the antipathy toward Trump appears to be a significant driver of Democratic success. He points to independent voters, who often act as a “protest vehicle,” increasingly supporting the opposition party in response to their frustrations with the administration.
The Impact of College vs. Non-College Voters
Historically, support for Trump has been strongest among white voters without college degrees. Conversely, college-educated voters, especially white voters, have become more aligned with the Democratic party since Trump’s arrival on the scene. Kornacki’s analysis underscores the importance of these shifting demographics in interpreting election results.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Kornacki cautioned against overemphasizing off-year elections, but the breadth and depth of Democratic victories signal a potentially shifting political landscape. An NBC News poll conducted last week revealed a substantial eight-point advantage for Democrats in the generic midterm ballot, a marked increase compared to earlier in the year. This, coupled with the results of recent elections, paints a picture of a Democratic party gaining momentum.
Kornacki’s Election Night Rituals
Beyond the political analysis, Kornacki offered a glimpse into his rigorous preparation for election night coverage. He spends weeks meticulously studying maps and spreadsheets, bringing a massive collection of data to the studio. Commercial breaks are dedicated to comparing actual results with his research. And while the khaki pants have become a defining aspect of his on-air persona, he reveals they’re not actually khakis at all.
Ultimately, Kornacki drew a surprising connection between the current mayoral election and a 1977 race—when Mario Cuomo lost the Democratic primary for mayor and ran as a third-party candidate, also losing 50-41.
The recent election results reveal a compelling narrative: a shifting political landscape fueled by voter dissatisfaction and evolving demographic trends, potentially reshaping the landscape of the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. By analyzing these nuanced patterns, Kornacki provides invaluable context for understanding the current state of American politics
